Why We Run- A report on how young people become candidates and how progressives can build a more diverse pipeline

The surge of people from underrepresented groups running for office has stirred up speculation, but until now no one has evaluated these theories. In this report, Run for Something partnered with Data For Progress to explain the emergence of new progressive candidates, and to identify the traits and motivations that indicate someone will move from having interest in running for office to actually doing so.

We analyzed the sign up forms of more than 13,000 young people who raised their hand to run and the 10% of those who actually got their names on the ballot, looking at age, gender, race and the words used in their statements of interest.

Here’s what we found:

○WOMEN OF COLOR MOST LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO THE BALLOT: Our research showed that white people made up a higher proportion of prospective candidates, at 32% of all respondents, but people of color — and especially women of color — were the most likely to actually put their names on the ballot. In fact, 30% of identifiable candidates were women of color and 28% were men of color. White men, one fifth of candidate pool, were the least likely to move from prospective candidates to getting their name on the ballot.

○ IT’S ABOUT COMMUNITIES, NOT TRUMP: Very few prospective candidates — at most, 9% of the total pool — wrote about running for office in terms of Trump, and only one third of those who did mention him actually run. Candidates who ran were more likely to articulate their interest in specific terms, with nearly 40% of confirmed candidates mentioning their communities’ issues (frequently education and health care), and the political dynamics of their districts.

○ ISSUES MATTER. Motivations for running provided more information about whether prospective candidates would actually run than their demographic characteristics. Regardless of race, respondents who eventually became candidates were more likely to mention specific issues they cared about, as opposed to generally “making a difference.”

○ REPRESENTATION MATTERS. Women and people of color were particularly likely to discuss wanting to see people like them in government. White men were more likely to discuss establishment or general political dynamics not tied to race or gender. White candidates more frequently indicated a sense of frustration with the status quo, while non-white candidates more frequently included topics associated with community, service, and leadership.

○ NEW ENERGY IN RED AREAS: Rural prospective candidates were likely to mention political dynamics in their communities but those who did were also more likely to run for office than those who did not. These rural areas also lack the conventional pipeline that can hold back young candidates, which contributes to a higher likelihood of running.

This report shows — by the numbers — that Run for Something is the doing critical work of building a pipeline of underrepresented communities, and that it’s not just a fad. Now that an on-ramp into elected office exists, people will jump in the game.